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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.